Market Commentary | March 2026

Monthly Update

I write this March commentary on April 2^nd with the price of a barrel of crude oil at about $110¹ for West Texas Intermediate, up around $10 on the day. This as we enter the long Good Friday weekend with still an unclear outlook on when the war with Iran will end, outside of hearing about just a few more weeks, and when the Strait of Hormuz will be free of threat of attack so ships can start traversing through again. The supply chain shortages that are developing around the world, particularly in Asia and Europe, will only grow more acute in the coming weeks if this is not resolved. I’m not meaning to sound alarmist; I am trying to be as realistic as possible.

With respect to the month of March, oil prices drove the global bus as the impact of its spike reverberated near and far. The price of the front month WTI futures contract rose 52%, rising to $101.38 from $66.89². Procuring oil in the Middle East will cost one about $150 a barrel when looking at pricing in Dubai³. The average gallon of gasoline in the US rose to $4.06 from $2.98⁴. The US dollar rose notably with the euro and yen heavy US Dollar index higher by 2.4%⁵. Bond yields around the world rose sharply. The US 10-year yield was higher by 38 basis points to 4.32%⁶, the 10-year UK gilt yield jumped by 68 basis points to 4.92%, the German 10-year bund yield was up 36 basis points to $3.00 and the 10 yr Japanese JGB yield rose 23 basis points to 2.35%⁷.

With regards to the global stock markets, the S&P 500 fell 5%, the German DAX dropped 12%, the French CAC was lower by 11%, the Japanese Nikkei plunged by 15% while the Hang Seng was down by 7% to name a few large markets⁸. Europe and Asian markets were harder hit than the US because they import so much of their energy needs. Supply issues have stretched to fertilizer, particularly nitrogen, where about 25-30% of the world’s needs are sourced⁹. Urea, a type of nitrogen, saw its price jump by 46% looking at the Gulf NOLA pricing¹⁰. Sulfur, where about half the world’s needs are procured from the Middle East, and is the key input to making sulfuric acid, which is an important input in making phosphate, saw its price spike as well. It’s also used in the mining process where ore is leached from rock.

Refined products are where the real pain points are. I mentioned above the average price of gasoline at the pump. To add, the price of diesel, mostly used by trucks, is $5.50 per gallon in the US as of this writing vs $3.76 before the war and the price of jet fuel has more than doubled¹¹. While I’m talking about prices here, the conversation is now shifting to volumes and actually getting the product as the ships out of the Gulf with crude and products now arriving at port left before the war began. Now, there are almost no ships on the water with this stuff.

This all said, at some point hopefully very soon this war will end, ships will traverse the Strait of Hormuz free of threat and supply chains will normalize. But are we just going to go back to the way things were prior to the disruptions? I don’t think so. I don’t think the price of crude oil is going back to the ~$65 level it stood at pre-war¹². I think supply chains are going to shift away from the Strait via more pipelines built, like the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia that has ramped up to about 7 million barrels per day from almost nothing prior¹³. I think we are going to see global stock piling of all commodities as countries/companies don’t want to get caught short again of key raw materials.

It’s also important to revisit how the markets stood pre-war and what were the influences then to further analyze the behavior when we do revert away from this war like market stance. I believe beginning in the latter part of 2025 and in the first two months of 2026, the stock market was shifting away from the spectacular leadership of the Magnificent 7 stocks, most of which were plays on the GenAI tech trade and data center buildout. While the GenAI software is going to do amazing things for its users, the construction of the infrastructure needed to power it is massively expensive. To quantify, the big hyperscalers (the developers of large language models) consisting of Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Oracle are expected to spend about $600 billion on capital expenditures in 2026¹⁴. That is up from around $450 billion in 2025¹⁵. For context, depending on the company, this dollar level now makes up about 30%-75% of revenue¹⁶. Not cash flow, but of revenue, an astonishing pace of spending.

Investors are now becoming more concerned with the ability of these amazing companies to generate an attractive return on this large CapEx at the same time that CapEx is eating up most of their free cash. Reduced free cash flow means lower multiples that investors are willing to pay. Also, and what happens with any new technology, and seemingly happening now, at some point investors realize that not everyone can win and we’ve reached that point of differentiation I believe.

In addition, the biggest receiver of that spend, Nvidia, along with other AI infrastructure providers, are now a mixed bag of stock market performance. Investor concerns are growing that the competitive moat of Nvidia is shrinking where just maybe their gross margins of about 75%¹⁷ are not sustainable. A waning in the GenAI tech trade is something to watch because it dominates the S&P 500 in terms of concentration with almost 50%¹⁸ of the index touching the data center buildout in some fashion and the Magnificent 7 group making up about 35%¹⁹ of the index. And, about 40% of the contribution to GDP growth in 2025 was the construction of these data centers²⁰.

Also, after the war ends, investor attention will shift back to the private credit sector. Private credit has grown to become a $1.5 to $2 trillion asset class²¹ making up loans that historically were done by the banks. Post Great Financial Crisis when regulations tightened up on the US banking system, it resulted in less lending via this channel and that vacuum has been filled by private credit. Also, private credit and private equity who historically have relied on institutional investors like pension funds, insurance companies and endowments, decided to reach out to the retail world for capital and they have since raised many billions of dollars doing so.

With rising default rates as seen with the most recent data from Fitch, along with the increase in investor redemptions, there is heightened focus on this asset class with the average credit rating of borrowers being single B. I do want to emphasize though that not all underwriters of loans are alike and not all private credit loans are alike. Some are skilled underwriters and some are not. Some loans go to fund private equity leveraged buyouts and some go direct to companies that want to borrow growth capital. With respect to our holdings of private credit, we’ve spent many hours diligently working with the underwriters in understanding the portfolio and its defensible characteristics. Understanding the general risks that are out there, we feel comfortable with our particular positions.

A positive characteristic of markets, seen both in 2025 and the first two months of 2026, was the widened lens of investors to stocks outside the Mag 7. Whether the other 493 stocks in the index, and small and mid-cap stocks in the US to the pre-war rally in international markets. We hope that these sectors and geographies can get back on their saddle when the war ends and the Strait fully reopens because if I’m right that we’re losing the GenAI tech trade in terms of leadership, we’re going to need other opportunities to benefit from.

Conclusion

Readers and investors of ours understand that risk management is a number one focus of ours so while the things I’ve talked about so far here sound cautious, it is just our way of expressing our view of reality on the ground and our main areas of concern. I believe that still the big picture trend of stronger overseas markets relative to the US, a weaker US dollar, the desire to own hard assets like gold and oil to name a few, remains intact. And expectations that value stocks will do well relative to expensive growth stocks continue.

Something I say every letter, that regardless of what is going on out there, it remains vital that investors have adequate short-term liquidity over the next 2-3 years; knowing that period is covered can help separate the balance of one’s portfolio from the ups and downs of the market. Time horizon is always crucial and is always the best friend of any investor.

Disclaimers

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The market and economic data is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The information in this report has been prepared from data believed to be reliable, but no representation is being made as to its accuracy and completeness.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Nothing in this material should be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market update is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy, sell or hold. No representation is made concerning the appropriateness of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. You should speak with your own financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Bleakley Financial Group, LLC nor Peter Boockvar guarantees any specific outcome or profit. These disclosures cannot and do not list every conceivable factor that may affect the results of any investment or investment strategy. Risks will arise, and an investor must be willing and able to accept those risks, including the loss of principal.

Certain statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on opinions and assumptions that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that would cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. 

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

Peter Boockvar is solely an investment advisor representative and Chief Investment Officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners.

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