December 2025 Market Commentary | OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners

Monthly Update

I will start by sending my best wishes for a happy and healthy 2026. While this monthly letter was supposed to start off talking about the goings on in December and the state of things with markets and the economy, the fireworks, literally, that took place in Venezuela in the early days of 2026 have stolen the show news-wise. While the headline news portrays the take down of Nicolas Maduro as the arrest of a narco terrorist and a way to get more access to the country’s oil, I view it more as a stiff arm to China, Russian and Iran that have grown its presence in Venezuela with regards to access to their critical minerals, in addition to oil, as well as a territory for arms sales and drone production not too far from the Florida coast.

Either way, as investors and stewards of client money we must take a dispassionate and objective view of what it means for markets and the global economy rather than use the events as a forum to express our geopolitical views. Venezuela claims to have about 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, but that figure has never been audited, and some speculate it’s likely well overstated. In 1999 when Hugo Chavez took over, they had about 75 billion barrels of reserves according to the US Energy Information Administration and after 2011 that number magically spiked even as production fell from over 3 million barrels a day to the current rate just under 1 million barrels per day, according to the Venezuelan government. For perspective, the world produces about 105¹ million barrels per day of crude oil. So, while we are likely to see more supply in the coming decade from Venezuela, it will still cost about $100 billion² over the next ten years according to many estimates seen just to get back to the production levels they used to be at and to a small percentage of global supply.

Also of note, global oil demand grows by more than 1 million barrels a day³ so the world would easily absorb the new supply. Throw on all this the huge uncertainty about what happens next in terms of the governing of Venezuela, and we must call a time out and understand that any economic and market changes with regards to growth in Venezuelan oil supply will take time.

As we’ve put a wrap on 2025, the two market related things that stood out the most to me has been the Gen AI tech trade that continued in 2025 and the broadening out of investment opportunities to not just small and mid-cap stocks but to international ones as well, with many international markets well outperforming the US markets, after many years of underperformance. First with the GenAI tech trade, as seen over time, when new technology comes upon us, investors want to buy any stock that touches the ecosystem regardless of fundamentals because the story sounds so exciting. At some point though, investors begin the process of differentiating between expected winners and losers and I believe we’ve reached that point. Not everyone can win and we’re reminded how intensely competitive the business of creating technological products can be.

I thus believe that the market dominance of GenAI stocks is waning and the market will become more reliant on other sectors for outperformance. That baton pass can happen but with almost 40%⁴ of the S&P 500 concentrated in the top 8 stocks, it is a big baton to pass on.

With respect to international stock markets, to quantify how impressive the gains were in 2025, aided by weakness in the US dollar which had its worst year in many, here are some stats. The Spanish IBEX was up 69%⁵ in dollar terms. The Italian MIB index was higher by 49%⁶ in dollar terms. The German DAX gained 39%⁷ in dollar terms. In Asia, the Hang Seng rallied by 28%⁸, the Japanese Nikkei was up by 27%⁹ and the South Korean Kospi spiked by 80%¹⁰, all in dollar terms. I expect this outperformance relative to the US to continue in 2026 and don’t believe it is a one-year flash in the pan.

Another aspect of the markets that I have a close eye on in 2026 is the sovereign portion of the fixed income market, particularly developed country sovereign bonds. I believe debts and deficits now matter and that is being reflected in ever rising bond yields in Japan, Europe and still elevated US long term yields. In Japan, the Bank of Japan raised rates in December by 25 basis points as fully telegraphed as they continue to be the only major central bank that dragged its feet to such an extent in hiking rates to address high inflation while other central banks got to cutting rates. The European Central Bank has cut its deposit rate by 200 basis points¹¹ since June 2024 but is now holding steady at 2%¹² and in the face of this, long term interest rates in Germany and France, to name two, have done nothing but go up as worries about debts and deficits are now mattering for both countries.

In the US, the Fed gave us another interest rate cut in December, taking its total amount of rate reductions to 175 basis points¹³ that started in September 2024. In the summer of 2024, before the long end of the rate curve started to price in the cuts, the 10-yr yield was about the same level it stands at on the day of this writing, around 4.15%¹⁴. Thus, those that borrow off the long end of the yield curve, particularly home buyers, have only gotten modest rate relief from 175 basis points¹⁵ of cuts to the overnight fed funds rate.

With respect to the US economy, we enter 2026 with the same legs to the growth stool. That being the data center build out, upper income spending and beneficiaries of still huge amounts of government spending, particular in healthcare. Manufacturing, housing and lower income spending remains challenged. With respect to CapEx, the hope is that in 2026, the recently passed legislation that allows for immediate expensing can kick start non GenAI related capital spending because there has been no growth here over the past few years.

Economies outside of the US remain mixed. In Europe, Germany and France have seen little growth while Spain and Greece have been economic stars. China’s economy has been very mixed with continued softness in consumer spending because of the still large overhang from the contraction in their residential real estate market. Strength has been seen in parts of manufacturing and with exports as China’s dominance grows in EVs, robotics, industrial automation, renewables and other high-tech equipment as well as building out its semiconductor industry and AI models.

Positively with China, it seems that for now we have a trade truce with them as the US realizes that it needs China’s rare earth magnets and other vital industrial and pharmaceutical components and ingredients. China knows it still wants access to US technology and US markets. With Trump and Xi expected to meet multiple times this year, I expect this détente to continue.

Latin America will be a really interesting place to watch both economically and market wise in 2026 with the possible further shift politically to business-friendly policies. We’re seeing what is going on in Venezuela as talked about, but Argentina’s economy is going through a complete cleansing towards free markets via Javier Milei and Chile recently elected a business-friendly president. Brazil has a big election in October for its leadership, and we watch to see if President Lulu can retain his position or not.

I will finish talking about the impressive 2025 gains in precious metals. Gold rallied by 64%¹⁵, silver was higher by 141%¹⁶ and platinum saw its price jump by 127%¹⁷. For gold, continued strength in central bank buying that was finally joined by ETF purchases helped to drive the increase. Silver’s supply demand deficit for a 5^th year got noticed by markets as well as the US Geological Survey anointing it a critical mineral. For platinum, the realization that full EVs that have no catalytic converters that use platinum as a key metal are just not catching on and instead hybrids are winning the competition, and which uses more platinum per vehicle than an internal combustion engine car. Platinum is also in a supply deficit.

Conclusion

These are interesting times, with many moving parts and a growing focus on the sustainability of the GenAI technology trade and its buildout. We are all tech experts now, simply because the level of dependence on the technology leaves us little choice.

Something I say every letter, that regardless of what is going on out there, it remains vital that investors have adequate short-term liquidity over the next 2-3 years; knowing that period is covered can help separate the balance of one’s portfolio from the ups and downs of the market. Time horizon is always crucial and is always the best friend of any investor.

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The market and economic data is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The information in this report has been prepared from data believed to be reliable, but no representation is being made as to its accuracy and completeness.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Nothing in this material should be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market update is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy, sell or hold. No representation is made concerning the appropriateness of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. You should speak with your own financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Bleakley Financial Group, LLC nor Peter Boockvar guarantees any specific outcome or profit. These disclosures cannot and do not list every conceivable factor that may affect the results of any investment or investment strategy. Risks will arise, and an investor must be willing and able to accept those risks, including the loss of principal.

Certain statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on opinions and assumptions that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that would cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. 

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

 Peter Boockvar is solely an investment advisor representative and Chief Investment Officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners.

^1-16 Bloomberg

OP# 25-1011