Market Commentary | April 2026

Monthly Update

Markets moved fast in April. Here is what drove them.

Equities: A Remarkable Month

Stock markets around the world surged in April. The catalyst was a shift in tone from the White House signaling that military objectives with Iran were largely met, followed by an April 8th ceasefire. The S&P 500 ended the month up 10.4%, the NASDAQ gained 15%, and the Russell 2000 rose 12.2%.¹

Much of the strength came from an explosive rally in semiconductor stocks, particularly memory and storage names such as Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which dates to 1994, logged an 18-day winning streak — surpassing its prior record of 14 days — and finished the month up 38%.²

The GenAI Buildout: The Engine Behind the Move

These gains were not happening in a vacuum. The broader move in semiconductors, along with related plays in power, electrical equipment, and HVAC, reflects the enormous capital expenditure being committed by the large hyperscalers. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and Oracle combined are expected to spend $680 billion on data center and AI infrastructure — up from $416 billion in 2025, $240 billion in 2024, and $154 billion in 2023, according to Bank of America.³

The hyperscalers themselves have been more of a mixed bag, as investors have begun to scrutinize the shrinking free cash flows that accompany this level of spending. Still, the AI infrastructure theme dominates the market. Nearly half of S&P 500 market capitalization touches the GenAI trade in some form, and nearly half of current US economic growth is being driven by data center construction and the associated capital expenditure.⁴

Energy: The Strait Remains the Story

Crude oil rallied another 13% in April, following a 40% gain in March that came immediately after the conflict began. As of this writing, WTI crude and related Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to affect global supply chains.⁵

Anywhere between 10 and 12 million barrels per day of crude oil remain stuck in the Strait, along with other critical raw materials including urea, aluminum, sulfur, and naphtha⁶

The fertilizer supply disruption — particularly the shortage of urea — pushed food prices higher. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which covers corn, wheat, soybeans, cocoa, and coffee, rose 3.4% in April after a 4.9% gain in March.⁷ The average US gallon of gasoline reached $4.48 as of this writing, the highest nominal price on record outside of two months in 2022, up from $4.06 at the start of April. Diesel stands at $5.64, up from $3.76 at the end of February.⁸

Hopes for a deal with Iran have grown. A 14-point proposal has been presented and we await a response. We have been optimistic that a resolution is close, though each additional day the Strait remains constrained prolongs pressure on global commodity markets.

Interest Rates: Long Rates Are Taking Charge

Along with rising inflation expectations visible in the TIPS market, US long-term interest rates climbed during the month — a trend echoed globally. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield touched a 29-year high at month end.⁹ The German 10-year Bund reached a 15-year high.¹⁰ The UK 10-year Gilt hit an 18-year high.¹¹ The US 10-year yield at 4.35% as of this writing sits just below its highest level since July 2025.¹²

Part of this move reflects growing concern about sovereign debt and deficits. For energy-importing nations, the combination of higher oil prices and elevated financing needs has made long-term bonds a source of liquidation rather than a safe haven. Central banks are no longer easing — some are now hiking. The Reserve Bank of Australia has taken back all of its rate cuts, returning its overnight rate to 4.35%, the peak of its prior hiking cycle.¹³ The fed funds futures market has priced out the two cuts that were expected at the start of the year, as the incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes the helm on May 16th.

In a meaningful sense, long-term rates are now adjusting the cost of capital in real time — independent of central bank policy. This has direct implications for government interest expense, consumer mortgage costs, and corporate financing needs.

International Markets and the Dollar

International equity markets rebounded alongside US stocks. The German DAX, which fell 12.4% in March, recovered 8.9% in April.¹⁴ The French CAC rose 5.5% after an 11% drop in February.¹⁵ The Nikkei saw some of the largest swings: after a strong start to the year, it fell 15% in March and surged 18% in April.¹⁶

The US dollar has given back much of its post-conflict rally. The DXY index sits only slightly above pre-war levels. Commodity-linked currencies have strengthened: the Australian dollar is at a four-year high versus the US dollar, the Brazilian real at a two-year high, and the Canadian dollar has recaptured its losses.¹⁷

What We Are Watching

The two variables that matter most right now are the timeline for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the sustainability of the data center buildout. Neither has a certain answer. Markets are currently pricing in a swift resolution on both — the geopolitical situation resolves cleanly, the Strait reopens fully, and the AI capital cycle continues without interruption.

That may well prove correct. But for those who ask how equities can keep rising with oil prices elevated and the Strait barely open, the answer is that the GenAI trade is currently dominating investor attention. Market participants are largely looking past energy prices and supply disruptions on the belief that the conflict ends soon and that everything settles back to normal.

We hope for that outcome. And we continue to focus on risk management as a core responsibility — because conditions can change quickly and portfolios should be prepared for a range of outcomes, not just the benign one.

A Note on Investor Time Horizon

Something we return to in every letter: regardless of what is happening in the markets or the world, it remains essential that investors maintain adequate short-term liquidity to cover two to three years of spending needs. Knowing that near-term period is secured allows the rest of a portfolio to be viewed with a longer perspective — and that time horizon is always the investor’s most reliable advantage.

Disclaimers

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The market and economic data is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The information in this report has been prepared from data believed to be reliable, but no representation is being made as to its accuracy and completeness.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

Nothing in this material should be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market update is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy, sell or hold. No representation is made concerning the appropriateness of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. You should speak with your own financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Bleakley Financial Group, LLC nor Peter Boockvar guarantees any specific outcome or profit. These disclosures cannot and do not list every conceivable factor that may affect the results of any investment or investment strategy. Risks will arise, and an investor must be willing and able to accept those risks, including the loss of principal.

Certain statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on opinions and assumptions that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that would cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. 

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

Peter Boockvar is solely an investment advisor representative and Chief Investment Officer of OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners.

^{1-2, 4-17} Bloomberg

³ Bank of America

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