Commodities, Not Complacency: Peter Boockvar on Wall Street Bullion

CIO Peter Boockvar returned to Wall Street Bullion this month for a wide-ranging discussion with host Ivan on inflation, interest rates, precious metals, and the state of the equity market. Key points from the conversation follow.

Inflation is a supply-chain problem, not a CPI print

With headline PPI at 5.4% and the core rate at 4.7%, Peter argued that investors reading CPI alone are working with half a picture. Price pressure exists throughout the supply chain; the open question is who absorbs it. Where the consumer does not, the result is margin compression further upstream. Both series warrant attention.

Rates are being set at the long end

The 10-year Treasury yield has broken out to its highest level since October 2023 and appears to be retesting the 5% area touched intraday that year. Peter expects the Fed to follow through on a hike if futures markets price a greater than 70% probability going into the meeting, but views the short end as increasingly secondary: the long end has already done much of the tightening.

Equity weakness is already visible beneath the index

The equal-weighted retail ETF recently closed at a three-month low and small caps have rolled over. Headline S&P 500 strength continues to rest on the AI and technology complex. A broader drawdown, in Peter’s view, likely requires that trade to crack — and persistently rising rates may prove sufficient.

Energy equities over metals in the near term

Gold and silver remain tethered to the direction of real rates and the dollar, and traded lower on the day of the interview on the back of the yield move. Peter maintains that both are long-term beneficiaries of an inflationary environment and of investor repudiation of long-duration developed-market sovereign debt. Nearer term, he sees oil and gas equities as the more direct hedge against rising crude and the diesel costs flowing through to businesses and consumers.

On proposed $5,000 payments

Peter considers the proposal unlikely to advance given the legislative calendar, and notes tariff receipts would cover only a fraction of the cost. He is sympathetic to the intent but cautions that demand-side transfers into a supply-constrained economy accelerate inflation rather than relieve it — the 2020–2022 sequence being the recent precedent.

Positioning

OnePoint BFG maintains a commodities allocation spanning oil and gas, uranium, precious metals, and increasingly agriculture, where the Bloomberg Agriculture Index sits near its highest level since late 2023. Peter characterizes the current environment as a full-fledged commodity bull market and uses the allocation as a diversifier within client portfolios.

His closing guidance: fasten your seatbelt, and do not drive so fast on the investing road.

Full Interview:

Disclosures

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Wall Street Bullion and Ivan Bayoukhi are not affiliated with OnePoint BFG nor compensated by OnePoint BFG.

The opinions expressed by Peter Boockvar are his own personal views and experiences as a Chief Investment Officer. The information contained herein is provided for informational and discussion purposes only and is not, and may not be relied on, in any manner, as legal, tax, accounting, or regulatory advice, nor does this constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and may not be used or relied upon in connection with any offer or sale of securities. The information, as set forth herein, should not be construed or interpreted as OnePoint BFG's guarantee of any particular investment outcome or a guarantee of future investment returns or results.